The 2090s are going to be how much warmer than the 1860s?

(In case you need a cheat sheet: the WG1 AR5 poster as PDF.)

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3 thoughts on “The 2090s are going to be how much warmer than the 1860s?

  1. – It doesn’t look like people are bothering to check old temperature graphs before they answer. Since the trend is not linear. 1910s being cooler than 1860s whilst 1877 was particularly hot, it makes a big difference with which year you start.

    – My answer would be “I don’t know” due to the fact we can’t be certain of 1860 measurements accuracy or their margin of error)
    ..and 2090s I haven’t got a flaming clue. Anything could pop up, volcanoes something to like CFCs, magnet pole flip, change in the sun etc.
    – Phrasing “going to be how much warmer than” is not a neutral question so does lead repondents ..
    The 2090s will probably be warmer.. but it is not certain so saying “much warnmer” does lead, it might be cooler in same way 1910s being cooler than 1860s

  2. Just going by the well-established 65-year cycle, we should be right in the middle of a cold phase in the 2090s. Is this why the 2090s was picked?

  3. Well-established? That’s a bit unspecific. Do you think there’s also an underlying AGW trend? Wasn’t the cycle 60yr? Do you mean the AMV, or some planetary climastrology?

    No the 2090s were chosen as last decade of this century and considering the IPCC AR5. The AR5 is quite informative.

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